Kava and Climate Change / Rising Sea Levels

[Honolulusurfer88]

Is there a discussion going on about this, with some definitive forecasts? I do not have a political opinion one way about climate change or another but I am very interested to know what kind of discussion is centering around the kava producing islands of Fiji and Vanuatu. As I understand it, these are very vulnerable areas to rising sea levels, and I am curious what (if anything) can be done. And if nothing, how the climate trends are going to affect, or are already affecting, kava?

Also, while I imagine Hawaii is more safe, that is going purely on a guess, so if anybody involved in the Hawaii game has any input on this, I am very interested, as well.

 

[kastom_lif]

Kava grows on high islands. Even if the ocean rose 50 feet, there would still be lots of land. The issue with rising sea levels impacts low atolls WAY harder.

Climate change is a big deal. Vanuatu even has a government department of climate change. Changing rainfall patterns and changes in sea temperature and pH are serious issues. Cyclones are now fewer, but stronger. Ninos and ninas are stronger. As the sea becomes more acidic, reef growth slows or even stops. If the sea gets too hot, reefs bleach.

 

[sɥɐʞɐs]

The problem kava faces is definitely less about sea level and more about the increase in extreme cyclone activity and periods of El Niño. In the South Pacific, El Niño has a different effect than what I experience in California. Here, it brings a season of heavy rain, but in the islands, it brings drought. When I went to Vanuatu in 2015, it had just recently been pounded by one of their worst cyclones and it immediately turned around into an El Niño drought that was drying up some of the islands, causing bush fires and making crops thirsty...in some regions. It was significant enough that locals brought it up to me a few times while having small talk.

 

[verticity]

Adding some references to elaborate on what @kastom_lif and @sɥɐʞɐs said above:

Climate change is taken very seriously by people and governments of kava producing countries. The science around predictions about changes in frequency and intensity of storms is not as well established as the simple fact that warming is happening (which is very well established), but there are some good modeling studies predicting that there will be fewer tropical cyclones overall, but more of the most powerful storms and an increase in the average intensity of storms. Also there could be changes in seasonal rainfall patterns: more rainfall during the wet season, but less rainfall during the dry season, and also more frequent "extreme rainfall days". (Source regarding rainfall predictions: https://www.pacificclimatechangescience.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/15_PCCSP_Vanuatu_8pp.pdf )

The COP23 site has this to say about predicted more intense storms and rainfall changes in Vanuatu:

"Cyclones will be less frequent, but more severe, endangering the country’s economy and the population’s livelihood. Root crops, such as sweet potatoes and plantains, provide food and income for more than 70 percent of Vanuatu’s majority-rural population. But changing rainfall patterns cause damage to seedlings and soil and cause contamination of the environment in which crops grow, making the ground—and thus, these staple food sources—vulnerable to pests and diseases."
Source: https://cop23.com.fj/vanuatu/

As is the case with predictions tying more intense storms to climate change, the science suggesting more droughts caused by CC is still being worked out, but IMO should still be taken very seriously. The PCCSP report says about Vanuatu specifically:

"Drought projections are inconsistent for Vanuatu"

whereas this review article:

Dai, Aiguo. "Drought under global warming: a review." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2.1 (2011): 45-65.

discussing the situation worldwide says:

"Climate models project increased aridity in the 21st century over most of Africa, southern Europe and the Middle East, most of the Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia."

Another thing that will continue to happen is ocean acidification from increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. (Source: the first two of the above references) That wouldn't directly effect kava, but the effect on coral reefs could impact Vanuatu's tourism and fishing industries and thus the overall economies of kava producing nations.

 

[verticity]

In Fiji, rising sea levels are considered a threat both because of flooding and water borne diseases and the need to relocate some people, but also a threat to crops. (Reference: https://cop23.com.fj/fiji-and-the-pacific/how-fiji-is-affected-by-climate-change/)

The Fiji National Climate Change Policy doesn't specifically mention kava that I can find (which is odd), but does say this about the effect on other root crops:

"Impacts on root crop production
Projections of the impact of climate change on root crop production were conducted as part of the preparation of the Fiji’s First National Communication under the Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2005). Using the PLANTGRO model, the following patterns were projected for dalo and yam production (DoE 2005).
• Projected changes in mean conditions will have little effect on dalo production, with the exception of the extreme low-rainfall scenario (using the DKRZ GCM –German Climate Computing Centre’s Global Climate Model), which would result in a halving of the land area providing high yields. It is likely that yam production will remain unaffected, although if rainfall increases significantly, yam yields may fall slightly.
• When El Niño conditions are factored in, reductions in production of 30–40% might be recorded in one out of three years, with a further one in five years affected by the residual effects of the ENSO events.
• Using the same ENSO assumptions we find a converse response for yam production. In one out of three years, yam production might be expected to remain the same or increase. On the other hand, yields may decrease in around half of the remaining years, especially when La Niña conditions prevail"
Reference (p. 52): https://www.preventionweb.net/files/Fiji National Climate Change policy.pdf

TL/DR: They are not exactly certain what will happen, on average maybe nothing, but the increased rainfall variability could have an adverse effect on root crops during El Niño/La Niña years.

Fiji has taken a leadership position on climate change, so I'm not sure if the above policy is current, but it seems to me they ought to update it to take into account not only rainfall but also severe cyclones in light of cyclone Winston, etc...

The COP23 site referenced above says this about tropical cyclones in Fiji:

"Destructive Winds: The Growing Intensity of Tropical Cyclones
Climate change represents one of the biggest threats to sustainable development. In Fiji specifically, destructive weather patterns have hindered the island’s economy and uprooted thousands across the island nation.
In February 2016, Cyclone Winston ravaged Fiji, taking the lives of 44 Fijians, destroying homes, uprooting families and inflicting serious damage on the nation’s sugar crop, a foundation of the Fijian economy. The Prime Minister declared a 30-day state of emergency. With winds recorded at 185 miles per hour and gusts up to 200 miles per hour, Cyclone Winston took its place as Fiji’s worst recorded natural disaster and the strongest storm to ever to make landfall in the Southern Hemisphere. Damages from the storm totalled an estimated $1.4 billion, which represents more than a third of Fiji’s GDP."

 

[kastom_lif]

Here's a cute cartoon explanation of how La Niña and El Niño affect Vanuatu. These natural oscillations are not necessarily a part of anthropogenic climate change, though alternating wet and dry years can aggravate the other effects of climate change.